VOLATILITY IN RUPEE LIKELY TO PERSIST IN SHORT TERM - Business Guardian
Connect with us

Business News

VOLATILITY IN RUPEE LIKELY TO PERSIST IN SHORT TERM

With the INR being a near-outlier in the Asia FX fall, the FX intervention strategy for the RBI will need to be revisited

Published

on

The dollar index is at a two-decade high, reflecting the ongoing interest rate hikes by US Fed and the continuing geo-political risks.

Suman Chowdhury, Chief Analytical Officer, Acuite Ratings & Research, said: “Along with the expanded trade and current account deficit, such an environment has kept the pressure on the rupee which continues to hover around 80. While the FII outflows have been arrested, the uncertainty on capital flows and the volatility in rupee are likely to persist in the short term.”

Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist and Executive Director, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, said from Rs 73 per dollar in April 2021, recently rupee moved below Rs 80 per dollar. Depreciation of rupee by 6 per cent against dollar in the last 12 months is one of the lowest among the major countries (both developed and emerging market) leading to appreciation of rupee against most other currencies.

Within the EM Asia equities, Indonesia, South Korea, and India have historically shown the highest negative sensitivity to USD strength. Sectorally for India, real estate and financials have typically been the most negatively impacted, while Healthcare has witnessed the softest hit, Emkay Global Financial Services said in a note.

With the INR being a near-outlier in the Asia FX fall, the FX intervention strategy for the RBI will need to be revisited. The emerging bilateral imbalances (sharply depreciating) against the CNY should not become too accentuated, it said.

“We believe RBI will eventually let the exchange rate adjust to new realities, albeit in an orderly manner, letting it act as an automatic macro stabilizer to the policy reaction function. We see the INR hitting a low of 82 against the USD, before reverting to the sub-79 range,” the report said.

Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income, Quantum Mutual Fund said at the Jackson Hole symposium, US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a hawkish speech suggesting rate hikes will continue and higher rates will be maintained for long period.

Powell’s speech was a big pushback to the part of the market which was pricing for a rate cut by the Fed on the first sign of economic weakness. Market expectations of terminal US Fed Fund rate moved up to 4 per cent vs 3.5 per cent a fortnight back.

Similar hawkishness can be seen in the commentary from other central banks in that part of the world including the European Central Bank, Bank of Canada, and Bank of England. All are hiking their respective policy rates at a pace of 50-75 basis points every meeting.

Pathak said this is not a conducive environment for foreign investors to invest in emerging economies. “Thus, we do not expect large inflows from foreign investors immediately even if India gets inducted into the global bond indices though it would be sentiment positive for the domestic investors and might extend the bond rally for some more time.”

Hajra said the broad-based strengthening of the dollar against most currencies suggests that depreciation of rupee is more due to dollar strength than rupee weakness. Reasons for dollar strength include geopolitical uncertainties and rapid policy tightening by the central banks in response to high inflation have made investors risk averse. The perception that the dollar is a safer currency during global uncertainty has increased demand for dollars.

In response to higher inflation in the country, the US central bank is increasing the monetary policy rate faster than most other countries. Faster rise of interest rate in the US versus the rest of the world increased demand for dollars.

The reasons for rupee weakness include every $1 increase in crude oil price per barrel leads to a $2.5 billion rise in India’s yearly oil import bill. With a major rise in global crude oil prices, India’s oil imports jumped putting pressures on the rupee to depreciate, Hajra said.

In view of the global uncertainties, foreign portfolio equity investors withdrew $200 billion from major countries during January-March 2022. While countries such as the US, France, and Japan registered large withdrawals, $14 billion was also withdrawn from India. During 2022 so far, $29 billion has been withdrawn from Indian equities by foreign portfolio investors. The large outflow also contributed to rupee weakness.

However, there is expectation of the end of dollar strength. Rapid strengthening of the dollar is hurting the US economy by making exports non-competitive and imports cheaper. Large trade deficit led to US GDP growth turning negative during January- March 2022. Even a limited fall in global uncertainty would weaken demand for dollars.

In addition, oil prices have already corrected by 15 per cent from the peak. The US Energy Information Administration expects crude oil prices to correct by another 10-15 per cent to $90 per barrel by the end of 2022. If global oil price moves from the recent peak of $130 to $90 per barrel, it would mean potential yearly savings of $100 billion on India’s oil imports. This would substantially reduce the pressure on the rupee to depreciate, Hajra said.

Whenever India faced significant portfolio equity outflow, it has been followed by large inflows. Already there are signs that foreign investors are turning positive on Indian equities. Even a moderation of foreign portfolio investment outflow would limit the slide of rupee.

The RBI intervenes in the foreign exchange market to reduce rupee volatility. With India’s balance of payment turning unfavourable since the second half of 2021, the RBI is selling dollars. This resulted in limited (6 per cent) rupee depreciation in the last 12 months versus much larger (12-18 per cent) depreciation of euro, yen and pound versus dollar.

With a $580 billion foreign exchange reserves, the fourth largest in the world, and a $50 billion long position in the derivatives market, the RBI is well prepared and committed to keep the volatility of rupee limited, Hajra said.

Despite large global volatilities, the rupee remained relatively stable in the last 12 months due to proactive policies of the RBI. Likely changes in the global environment would make the rupee more stable in the next 12 months, he added.

The Daily Guardian is now on Telegram. Click here to join our channel (@thedailyguardian) and stay updated with the latest headlines.

For the latest news Download The Daily Guardian App.

Business News

Post 370, investment climate brightens in J&K

Published

on

Post 370, investment climate brightens in J&K

After witnessing decades of violence, the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir has witnessed tremendous changes in economic activities after the abrogation of Article 370.

After Article 370 was repealed, Jammu and Kashmir became subject to 890 central laws, while 250 unfair state legislation were eliminated. Additional 130 state legislation have undergone changes. The elimination of certain hurdles has led to a conducive business atmosphere. Due to the country’s strong leadership and increased stability in the region, foreign businesses are considering investment opportunities here.

The Lulu Group, Apollo, EMAAR, and Jindal are among the few commercial organizations that have investments in Jammu and Kashmir. The UT has inked five more Memorandum of Understandings (MoUs) with Al Maya Group, MATU Investments LLC, GL Employment Brokerage LLC, Century Financial, and Noon E-commerce, respectively. Magna Waves Pvt. Ltd. and Emaar Group, and Lulu International have also signed a single Letter of Intent.

In 2021, the Union Territory attracted investments of USD 2.5 billion, showcasing the region’s vast opportunities and business potential.

Even Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with delegates from the United Arab Emirates seeking business opportunities in Jammu and Kashmir, noting that private investment bids in the Union Territory have topped Rs 38,000 crore.

The government is fully aware that investments play a crucial role in economic development because they lead to the accumulation of public wealth as well as advancements in science and technology. As a result, a framework for increasing the region’s manufacturing viability and economic growth is established.

The Jammu and Kashmir government established a five-person committee on June 23 to communicate with the Minister of External Affairs regarding the G20 meetings. India is starting to get ready for the big event.

In order to promote fresh investment and bring industrial development to the block level, the J&K administration introduced a new industrial development scheme with an outlay of Rs 28,400 crore in January of last year. The new regulation, valid until 2037, also made it possible for more prominent investors to invest in J-K.

Before the repealing of Article 370, there were not many investments in Jammu and Kashmir.

The Indian government is aware that investments play a key role in the economic development of any region. Hence, it is no letting stone unturned to establish a framework for increasing the region’s manufacturing viability and economic growth.

Infrastructure development in the Union Territory got a big push after the abrogation of Article 370.

After the abrogation of Article 370, the execution of new roads, tunnels and other basic Infrastructure has gained momentum to ensure the overall development of J&K.

Noting that roads are now being built at twice the speed as before, the Lt Governor of the Union Territory Manoj Sinha had said there has been a radical change in its progress under Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana.

Continue Reading

Business News

Raise retirement age of SC, HC judges: BCI

Published

on

By

Raise retirement age of SC, HC judges: BCI

The Bar Council of India (BCI) in a joint meeting that was held last week has unanimously reached a conclusion that there should be an immediate amendment to the Constitution and the retirement age of Judges of Supreme Court and High Courts.

“There should be an immediate amendment in the Constitution and the retirement age of Judges of High Court should be enhanced from 62 to 65 years and the age of superannuation of the Judges of Supreme Court should be enhanced to 67 years,” stated BCI in a press statement. The copy of the resolution was decided to be communicated to the Prime Minister of India and Union Minister for Law and Justice for immediate action on the resolution, stated press statement by BCI.

Moreover, the joint meeting has also resolved to propose to the Parliament to consider to amend the various Statutes so that even the experienced advocates could be appointed as the Chairpersons of various commissions and other Forums.

Continue Reading

Business News

PM to hold bilateral talks with world leaders: MEA

Published

on

By

PM to hold bilateral talks with world leaders: MEA

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is looking forward to exchanging views on topical, regional and international issues at the 22nd Summit of the Council of Heads of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Member States (SCO-CoHS) to be held in Samarkand.

“At the SCO Summit, I look forward to exchanging views on topical, regional and international issues, the expansion of SCO and on further deepening of multifaceted and mutually beneficial cooperation within the Organization,” read Prime Minister’s Office departure statement ahead of his visit to Uzbekistan. PM Modi will attend the summit on Friday. He is expected to have bilateral meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Iranian President, Ebrahim Raisi and Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Samarkand.

“I will be visiting Samarkand at the invitation of President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev to attend the Meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO),” added the statement.

Under the Uzbek Chairship, a number of decisions for mutual cooperation are likely to be adopted in areas of trade, economy, culture and tourism.

“I also look forward to meeting President Mirziyoyev in Samarkand. I fondly recall his visit to India in 2018. He also graced the Vibrant Gujarat Summit as its Guest of Honour in 2019”.

Continue Reading

Business News

CENTRE INKS PEACE DEAL WITH 8 MILITANT OUTFITS

A new age of peace and harmony in state will undoubtedly begin with the signing of the pact, said Assam CM

Published

on

By

CENTRE INKS PEACE DEAL WITH 8 MILITANT OUTFITS

The Centre and Assam government on Thursday signed a tripartite peace accord with eight tribal militant outfits of Assam. The accord was signed in the presence of Union Home Minister Amit Shah.

The eight rebel groups include Birsa Commando Force (BCF), Adivasi People’s Army (APA), All Adivasi National Liberation Army (AANLA), Adivasi Cobra Military of Assam (ACMA) and Santhali Tiger Force (STF) and the remaining three outfits are splinter groups of BCF, AANLA and ACMA. The accord was signed 10 years after the peace process started. Birsa Commando Force (BCF), Adivasi People’s Army (APA), All Adivasi National Liberation Army (AANLA), Adivasi Cobra Military of Assam (ACMA) and Santhali Tiger Force (STF) have been in a ceasefire with the government since 2012 and since then the cadres of the militant outfits are staying in designated camps.

“I am sure signing of the agreement will usher in a new era of peace and harmony in Assam,” Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma had said.

On January 27 this year, a total of 246 insurgents of two militant groups of the state laid down their arms and returned to the mainstream.

In an arms-laying ceremonial function held at Srimanta Sankardev Kalakshetra in Guwahati, 169 insurgents of the United Gorkha People’s Organisation (UGPO) and 77 insurgents of the Tiwa Liberation Army (TLA) laid down their arms before Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, Assam DGP Bhaskar Jyoti Mahanta, Chief Executive Member of BTR Pramod Boro, CEM TAC Jibon Chandra Konwar.

Earlier, the Assam CM had held a meeting with rebel Adivasi groups regarding the final settlement which is currently under a ceasefire.

Amit Shah had in January 2020 also presided over the signing of a historic agreement between the Government of India, the Government of Assam and Bodo representatives in New Delhi to end the over 50-year-old Bodo crisis that has cost the region over 4,000 lives.

Continue Reading

Business News

AS XI STEPS OUT OF CHINA, POPULIST POLICIES LOOM

Modi is no political novice; he has his cards close to his chest and would not be cowered by dragon. If communism has steeled Xi, democracy has bolstered Modi

Published

on

By

AS XI STEPS OUT OF CHINA, POPULIST POLICIES LOOM

Chinese President Xi Jinping has stepped out of the country for the first time since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic that originated in his country in early 2020 and forced global lockdowns, clobbered large economies and caused death of thousands across the world, not to forget the millions who fell sick and escaped death but paid with lifetime of infirmities.

But, we won’t discuss the pandemic here even though any discussion in the world today is incomplete without mentioning the affliction that has acquired a universal character.

Xi, wearing a face mask, landed in Nur-Sultan, the capital of Kazakhstan, to a red carpet welcome by his Kazakh counterpart Kassym-Jomart Tokayev on Tuesday. The Central Asian republic is celebrating 30 years of the establishment of diplomatic relations with China.

Central Asian countries are of strategic interest to China not only because they can help the second largest economy deepen its economic footprint in the region but because they also provide a diplomatic perch to ride on as Beijing faces increasing isolation from the West.

Later in the evening, Xi flew to Samarkand in Uzbekistan where he will attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit from Thursday to Friday. Beyond the security implications of the meeting of the strategic group of eight countries, the spotlight on Samarkand this fall is on bilateral talks.

Though Xi is thousands of kilometres from home, his heart would be in Beijing as the Chinese leader who would be virtually crowned for the third term to lead the nation of 1.5 billion is just two months away from the grand event – the upcoming Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC).

Xi carries loads of baggage on his shoulders. The baggage is made of political pledges and expectations, declarations of social and cultural resuscitation of the nation and the promise of reuniting Taiwan with mainland China.

Xi is in Samarkand not only as the President of his country but as a reservoir of hope for the millions of Chinese of his generation who want to live by the ideals of communist leader Mao Zedong and believe in the revival of an ethos that the China of today may have strayed away from amid lapping waves of globalisation and the unnerving war cry of capitalism over communism.

AS XI STEPS OUT OF CHINA, POPULIST POLICIES LOOM

The presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the summit adds to the precariousness of Xi’s situation. While northern neighbour Russia is seen as a renegade by the West for attacking Ukraine and bringing the region to a military ferment, India has to speak its mind to Beijing that was behind the Galwan standoff which brought two nuclear powers quite close to a full-blown war.

A Xi-Putin summit will see the Chinese President trying to leverage the opportunity to buy more support from Moscow for its stance on Taiwan. President-for-life he may be, but nothing prevents Xi from catalysing more support from a country that again stands isolated among most nations of a community comprising mainstream international politics.

Ahead of the 20th CPC National Congress on October 16, Xi has to show his constituents (Chinese people) that he is capable of standing tall in the Great Hall of the People.

In Modi, Xi will find an adversary who straddles the eastern and western hemispheres with equal ease. In the summit with Modi, Xi will try his best to turn the tables on India over the spy ship Beijing sent to Sri Lanka or have the upper hand on border disputes with New Delhi. After all, the delegates at the 20th Congress need to see their leader unfazed.

But Modi is no political novice. He surely has his cards close to his chest and would not be cowered by the flaming dragon. If communism has steeled Xi, democracy has strengthened Modi.

“We should join hands to combat terrorism, separatism, extremism, drug trafficking and transnational organised crimes, and ensure the security of oil and gas pipelines and other large cooperation projects and their personnel. We should resolutely oppose interference by external forces and work together for lasting peace and long-term stability of our region,” Xi said in a signed article published on Tuesday in the Kazakhstanskaya Pravda.

If words were horses, all politicians would ride them. Let’s see which way the dragon sits and the elephant trumpets.

• IANS

China emerged as the world’s second-largest economy by registering exceptional growth in the last four decades but at the cost of widespread corruption, environmental degradation, food safety issues and income disparities.

Prof Justin Yifu Lin, formerly senior vice-president and chief economist of the World Bank (2008-12), in an analysis explained the institutional price China paid for its economic success, reported Financial Post.

In 2018, China celebrated the 40th anniversary of its transition from a planned economy to a market economy. And it was an astounding success. In 1978, the country was closed and suspended to the world. It was a poor country, if not among the world’s poorest.

Its per capita was less than a third of even sub-Saharan African nations. Over 80 per cent of its people lived in rural areas, as many were living below the international poverty line and China had a closed economy where trade made less than 10 per cent of its GDP.

But in the last 40 years, the annual GDP growth rate was 9.4 per cent on average and trade grew at an average rate of 14.8 per cent. In no time, China was the world’s second-largest economy overtaking Japan. It was the largest exporter, beating Germany. It even surpassed the US to become the largest economy, measured by ‘purchasing power parity,’ and the largest trading economy.

But China paid a price for its unprecedented success. In addition to environmental degradation and food safety issues, which have attracted many public complaints and are the results of rapid industrialization and lack of appropriate regulations, the main issue during the transition is widespread corruption and the worsening of income disparities, said Prof Lin.

“Before 1978, China had a rather disciplined and clean bureaucratic system and an equalitarian society. According to the Corruption Perception Index published by Transparency International, China ranked No. 79 among all the 176 countries or territories in 2016,” added the professor.

The negatives are attributed by economics experts to China’s “dual-track transition strategy”. At one level, “the government provided transitory protection and subsidies to the nonviable state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the old, capital-intensive sectors to maintain stability”.

At another, it “liberalized and facilitated the entry to the new, labour-intensive sectors which were consistent with China’s comparative advantages to achieve dynamic growth,” reported Financial Post. Prof Lin points out that one of the most essential “costs of investment and operation for the old capital-intensive sectors was the cost of capital”.

Before the transition in 1978, the “government used fiscal appropriation to pay for investments and cover working capital, so SOEs did not have to bear any cost for capital. After the transition, the fiscal appropriation was replaced by bank loans.”

The Chinese government set up four large state banks and a stock market to meet the capital needs of large enterprises and to “subsidize SOEs, the interest rates and capital costs were artificially repressed”.

The research shows, “When the transition started, almost all firms in China were state-owned. With the dual-track transition, private-owned firms grew and some of them become large enough to get access to bank loans or list in the equity market.”

“As interest rates and capital costs were artificially repressed, whoever could borrow from the banks or list in the stock market was therefore subsidized. These subsidies were paid for by the low returns to savings in the banks or in the stock market made by individual households. Those people providing the funds were poorer than the owners of the large firms they financed.”

“The subsidization of the operation of the rich’s firms by poorer people was one reason for increasing income disparities. Moreover, the access to bank loans and equity market generated rents, leading to bribery and corruption of the officials who control the access.”

The analysis argues that some natural monopoly industries, such as power and telecommunication, were operated by state-owned enterprises and the government “liberalized the entry to those industries gradually”, adding that “those monopoly rents were also sources of inequality and corruption,” reported Financial Post.

Continue Reading

Business News

EU to raise $140 bn with windfall swoop

Published

on

By

EU to raise $140 bn with windfall swoop

The European Union wants to raise $140 billion by tapping the windfall profits of some energy companies to help households and businesses pay eye-watering gas and electricity bills, media reports said.

On Wednesday, the European Commission proposed capping the profits of renewable and nuclear electricity producers, and taxing the windfall earnings of oil and gas companies, CNN reported.

Profits at power generators using wind, solar and nuclear energy have ballooned because their tariffs are linked to the wholesale price of natural gas, which soared to a record high in March after Russia invaded Ukraine, and now stands about 550 pert cent up on year-ago levels, the report said. Europe sanctioned Russian oil and coal exports after the invasion, prompting Moscow to slash supplies of gas in return.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday that the bloc would conduct a “deep and comprehensive reform” to decouple the cost of gas from the price of electricity.

“These companies are making revenues they never accounted for, they never even dreamt of,” she told EU lawmakers in a speech in Strasbourg, France.

Continue Reading

Trending