Monetary policy tightening by various central banks to contain inflation, the war in Ukraine leading to price rise for crude oil and subsequent realignment in the global energy supply chain, and strengthening of the US dollar index kept the Indian currency under pressure in 2022. The Indian Rupee has been in the news cycle for a considerable part of 2022 for its steady depreciation. In 2022, the Rupee depreciated over 11 per cent on a cumulative basis, its poorest performance since 2013 and the worst drubbing among Asian currencies — as the US Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy propelled the greenback. data showed. It breached the 83-mark against the US dollar in mid-October, to hit an all-time low. It has, however, performed better than most Asian peer currencies, including the Chinese Renminbi, Indonesian Rupiah, Philippine Peso, South Korean Won, and Taiwanese Dollar during the current financial year. The US Federal Reserve policy rate is now at a target of 4.25- 4.50 per cent, the highest level in 15 years, which was near zero in the early part of 2022. An increase in policy rates in the US and other advanced economies typically leads to a depreciation of the emerging markets currency such as the Rupee. “Indian Rupee has had a mixed year in 2022, as far as relative performance is concerned. During the first three months it was an underperformer due to higher oil prices. However, it came back strongly during the mid of this year, due to fall in the energy prices and aggressive intervention from the RBI. But since October, we have seen Rupee underperform its peers once again, but this time due to larger than usual demand from oil importers,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research at Kotak Securities. Chouhan added 2023 can be a year of two halves. In explanation, he said “the seeds of a global economic slowdown could germinate” in the first half due to tightening monetary policies and fiscal policies and the alarming situation from Covid in China. “During the second half, we expect (US) Fed and other central bankers take notice of dramatic fall in inflation and growth and lower interest rates. Interest rate cut from Fed can boost inflows into emerging markets during the second half of 2023,” Chouhan of Kotak Securities said, adding that he sees Rupee versus the US dollar in a broad range of 80.00- 85.00/8.50 in 2023. However, everything is not gloom and doom for the Rupee fundamentals as the US Dollar index has fallen from the peak of 114 to around 105 currently. According to VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said: “The Dollar will stabilize and start weakening when the (US) Fed pauses by Q2 of 2023. RBI has done a good job in intervening in the forex market to stabilize the rupee and manage the forex reserves.” Typically, the RBI from time to time intervenes in the markets through liquidity management, including through the selling of dollars, with a view to preventing a steep depreciation in the rupee. At the start of 2022, the overall forex reserves were at USD 633.61 billion, which is currently at USD 563.499 billion. Much of the decline can be attributed to RBI’s intervention and a rise in the cost of imported goods. “The RBI intervention in forex spot market will curb any upside momentum in USD/INR rates. This will help to stabilize exchange rates around 83 – 87 in 2023,” said Sumeet Bagaria, Executive Director at Choice Broking, adding that it would be interesting to see how the RBI tackles the situation. Going ahead, much of the Rupee’s movement will also depend on the monetary policy action by the US Federal Reserve. “If we look ahead to 2023, the first half will still be unpredictable because the USA’s terminal rate is still unknown, and the RussiaUkraine war has not yet ended. As a result, the first half of 2023 may see some additional weakness, but the second half may be better for the rupee because US interest rates may reach their peak,” said Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart. For 2023, Meena sees Rupee in a tight range of 80.0-83.5.

Another breather may come from the decline in international crude oil prices, which currently is trading at about USD 78-80 per barrel. It touched as high as around USD 130 per barrel earlier this year. “We expect rupee to trade on a negative note moving between 84 to even hit as low as 85 mark against the US dollar as deteriorating global risk sentiments may put downside pressure on rupee. The rupee is currently around 82.8 against the US currency. Weak global markets may lead safe haven flows towards US dollar. However, sharp fall in crude oil prices may prevent sharp downside in rupee,” said Mohit Nigam, Fund Manager and Head – PMS, Hem Securities. A depreciation in Rupee too has its own share of advantages as it typically raises exporters’ earnings. What is India doing to reduce the over-dependence of the US Dollar and subsequent internationalization of the Rupee? The RBI had announced various measures recently to diversify and expand the sources of forex funding to mitigate exchange rate volatility and dampen global spillovers. Of them, the major one is that the RBI has put in place an additional arrangement for invoicing, payment, and settlement of exports/imports in Indian currency in mid-July, 2022. If the mechanism fructifies then it may go a long way in internationalizing the Indian currency rupee in the long run. Talks between India and UAE are already on for a RupeeDirham-denominated bilateral trade.

The Reserve Bank of India’s latest Systemic Risk Survey (SRS) showed that global spillovers, financial market and general risks have increased, while macroeconomic risks have moderated. The survey also showed respondents’ confidence in the Indian financial system further improved with 93.6 per cent of them remaining fairly or highly confident of the stability of the Indian financial system. No change is perceived in institutional risks. Monetary tightening in advanced economies, tightening of financial conditions, geopolitical risks, global growth uncertainty and growing risks from private cryptocurrencies and climate change are cited as the major contributors to the rise in the global, financial market and general risks.

The majority of the respondents saw further improvement in credit prospects for the Indian economy and remained confident about the stability of the Indian banking sector, according to RBI survey which was released on Thursday. Nearly ninety per cent of the respondents assessed that the prospects of the Indian banking sector are likely to improve or remain unchanged over a one-year horizon. The 23rd round of the RBI’s Systemic Risk Survey was conducted in November 2022 to solicit the perceptions of experts, including market participants and academicians, on major risks faced by the Indian financial system. The survey also captured respondents’ perception on risk to financial stability from external sector developments; segments of the Indian financial system — likely to be impacted by aggressive monetary policy tightening by advanced economies and their views on the likelihood of a global recession in 2023. More than half of the respondents assessed that the prospects of the Indian banking sector over a one-year horizon have improved. According to the survey, confidence in the stability of the global financial system marginally declined during the last six months. In contrast, confidence in the Indian financial system further improved with 93.6 per cent of the respondents remaining fairly or highly confident of the stability of the Indian financial system. Whereas, as much as 52.1 per cent of the respondents expected that the Indian economy will be impacted somewhat/to a limited extent from global spillovers. Despite global headwinds posing risks to domestic macro-financial conditions, the impact of external sector developments remained moderate as 53.2 per cent of the respondents perceived it of medium impact, RBI said in the survey. More than three-fourths of the respondents perceived that the aggressive monetary policy tightening by advanced economies would adversely impact the exchange rate, capital flows, foreign exchange reserves and bond yields.

The gross revenue from goods and services tax (GST) rose 15 per cent year-on-year to Rs 1,49,507 crore in December 2022, according to government data released on Sunday. This was the third-highest monthly collection since the tax was introduced in July 2017. Experts feel with this trend, the government will be able to collect through GST more than budget estimate. The government collected Rs 1,29,780 crore as gross GST revenue in December 2021. Of the total GST collected in December, CGST was Rs 26,711 crore, SGST was Rs 33,357 crore, IGST was Rs 78,434 crore (including Rs 40,263 crore collected on import of goods) and cess was Rs 11,005 crore (including Rs 850 crore collected on import of goods), data revealed. Notably, monthly GST revenues have been more than Rs 1.4 lakh crore for 10 straight months in a row now.In November, gross GST revenue collection was Rs 145,867 crore, an increase of 11 per cent over last year’s corresponding month.

The Centre launched a new integrated food security scheme on Sunday, which would give 5 kg of free food grain per month to 81.3 crore people nationwide. The scheme will provide free foodgrains beneficiaries under NFSA for the year 2023 and aims to ensure effective and uniform implementation of the National Food Security Act (NFSA). The Cabinet decided to launch a new central sector scheme to fulfil the vision of One Nation-One PriceOne Ration under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This is a commitment of the government to the most vulnerable 67 per cent of the population which is 81.35 crore people covered under NFSA, according to the ministry’s statement. Under the scheme, the government will provide free foodgrains to all NFSA beneficiaries namely Antyodaya Ann Yojana (AAY) households and Priority Household (PHH) persons for one year through the wide network of 5.33 lakh fair price shops across the country, according to the statement of the ministry of consumer affairs, food and public distribution. The decision will strengthen the provisions of NFSA, 2013, in terms of accessibility, affordability and availability of foodgrains for the poor. T h e n e w i nt e g r at e d scheme will subsume two current food subsidy schemes of the department of food and public distribution (DFPD) namely food subsidy to Food Corporation of India (FCI) for NFSA, and sops for decentralised procurement states, which deal with procurement, allocation and delivery of free foodgrains under NFSA.

Free foodgrains will concurrently ensure uniform implementation of portability under One Nation One Ration Card (ONORC) across the country and will further strengthen this choice-based platform. This means the ration card could be used anywhere in the country. The Centre will bear the food subsidy of more than Rs 2 lakh crore for 2023. The new scheme is aimed at bringing uniformity and clarity on food security under NFSA at beneficiary level, the ministry statement said. For implementing this scheme, the ministry had said that the secretary of DFPD had taken a meeting with all state food secretaries on December 29, 2022. The issues related to distribution of free foodgrains were discussed including technical resolutions. All states and Union Territories assured to implement the free foodgrain scheme from January 1, 2023, according to the statement. The government had issued an order to all general managers of FCI to visit three ration shops every day in different areas of their jurisdiction mandatorily from January 1 till 7 and submit a report to the DFPD nodal officer on a daily basis, in the given format for review and taking corrective action. In view of free foodgrains, an advisory is issued to the states/UTs on the mechanism to provide dealer’s margin for distributing foodgrains to the beneficiaries, the ministry said.

The Bar Council of India (BCI) in a joint meeting that was held last week has unanimously reached a conclusion that there should be an immediate amendment to the Constitution and the retirement age of Judges of Supreme Court and High Courts.

“There should be an immediate amendment in the Constitution and the retirement age of Judges of High Court should be enhanced from 62 to 65 years and the age of superannuation of the Judges of Supreme Court should be enhanced to 67 years,” stated BCI in a press statement. The copy of the resolution was decided to be communicated to the Prime Minister of India and Union Minister for Law and Justice for immediate action on the resolution, stated press statement by BCI.

Moreover, the joint meeting has also resolved to propose to the Parliament to consider to amend the various Statutes so that even the experienced advocates could be appointed as the Chairpersons of various commissions and other Forums.